Are Nevada’s Marijuana Growth Estimates Accurate?

Current marijuana growth estimates from Arcview research are suggesting that the revenue from the legal cannabis industry in Nevada could jump from the roughly $121.6 million it is worth now, to $630 million by 2020. Nevada is already outpacing other recreational weed states considerably, however the estimated growth rate in Nevada is hard to fathom.

If Arcview’s marijuana growth estimates are accurate, and the growth rate were to continue at a compounded rate of 51{f1d755e3d686d84b3fba3fb9da3bc25d6eb08724c18385fd50146d58c836a6dd} per year, then in ten years the recreational and medical marijuana industry in Nevada would have generated almost $7.5 billion in revenue. July alone, the first month recreational marijuana became available to consumers, made the state $10.2 million. Mathematically, growth like this is unsustainable or in 30 years Nevada would be challenging the United States and China for the largest economy in the world, almost entirely based on marijuana sales. What happens if Nevada cannot produce enough marijuana to meet the demand?

The unknown variable in the equation is Las Vegas tourism. Tourists already flock to Las Vegas for the gambling, shopping, flashing lights and fighting. They represent the vast majority of the money made by sin city, but the sale of recreational marijuana adds a new dynamic that is tough to estimate. At what point in time will marijuana sales plateau? When will Nevada be able to start making realistic estimates on economic growth?

It hasn’t been too long since the state of Nevada moved to the forefront of the cannabis business by adding recreational use to its legal model. Now figures from the Nevada Department of Taxation point towards the state breaking new ground in the amount of sales being produced.

The demand has been so strong due to the influx of tourists and visitors to Las Vegas, there even was a shortage of product.

A new report from the Reno-Gazette Journal indicated the Nevada Department of Taxation released the figures from the first month of cannabis sales in the state.

Banking on weed, Nevada made $10.2 million off the fledgling industry during the first month of sales in July, according to the Nevada Department of Taxation. Of that, $6.5 million came from industry fees and $3.68 million came from tax revenue.

Riana Durett, executive director of the Nevada Dispensary Association, told the Reno-Gazette Journal these figures amount to a success in what otherwise would have gone over to the black market.

It’s not that everyone decided to start consuming marijuana because it’s legal, it’s just now that we can realize the tax revenue,” Durett said.

According to the report the sales for Nevada on its first month available was nearly double of what Colorado and Oregon, while it amounted to closely seven times what Washington made during their first month of sales.

The main appeal debated for recreational use of cannabis for companies and investors is the potential of the million of visitors in Las Vegas every year.

A report from New Frontier in partnership with Arcview Market Research, done before the election of legalization for recreational cannabis, indicated on the possibilities for sales in the state of Nevada.

“Arcview Market Research’s official market projection is that annual legal cannabis sales will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 51 percent; from $121.6 million in 2016 to an estimated $630 million by 2020,” the data indicated.

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Richard Lowe

Richard Lowe is a 14-year veteran of the financial sector with licenses as a commodity broker (Series 3) and investment advisor representative (IAR Series 65). Along with a focus on raising capital for the firms he was employed with, he also wrote and edited much of the content published by them. He holds a BA in Journalism from the University of Massachusetts. He has been a longtime advocate for marijuana legalization due to the social injustices associated with marijuana prohibition and the strong potential for the medicinal benefits of cannabis.

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